How GDP May Propel Boise Real Estate
ByReports indicate that the economy is turning around based on the evidence of a 5.9% increase in GDP and increased business investment reports. As the recession eases Boise real estate will be helped out by the positive news.
In its second reading of fourth-quarter gross domestic product, the Commerce Department said the economy grew at a 5.9% annual rate, rather than the 5.7% pace it estimated last month. It was still the fastest pace since the third quarter of 2003. Posting an impressive 2.2% increase, the third quarter led all to date. If we go back to the 2003 number the Boise real estate market would be on solid footing.
Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast GDP, which measures total goods and services output within U.S. borders, growing at a 5.7% rate in the October-December period. While the economy rebounded strongly in the second half of 2009 from the worst downturn since the 1930s, data so far suggests the rapid rate of acceleration slowed somewhat in the first quarter of 2010. Even thought consumer spending and the housing markets were down, the fact that businesses increased investment in software and equipment helped add some steadiness to the economy and allowed business to liquidate bloated inventories. Being part of the fabric of the national economy, Boise real estate definitely had similar results.
Demand remains low as indicated by the reduction in actual growth of 1.9% from the projected growth of 2.2%, which reduced inventories and brought some balance back. Inventory values were adjusted down from $33.5 billion initially, to $16.9 in the fourth quarter. They dropped $139.2 billion in the July-September period. The Gross Domestic Product was increased by 3.88% simply by the difference in inventory in that quarter. This was the biggest percentage contribution since the fourth quarter of 1987. With so many suppliers eliminating excess inventory, builders in the Boise real estate market were helped out.
Not since the U.S. economy was recovering from World War II, in 1946, has it experienced the substantial drop in GDP of 2.4%. Even consumer spending projections had to be adjusted downward from 2% in January to the actual number of 1.7% increase. That was below the 2.8% rate in the prior quarter when consumption got a boost from the government’s “cash for clunkers” auto purchase program. A huge block of our economy normally comes from consumer spending, around 70%, but in the fourth quarter of 2009 it only added a minuscule 1.23%. In such a financial crisis, the Boise real estate market is not independent of the national trends.
Businesses continued to invest in equipment and necessary software at such a rate that the commercial real estate slump was not a cause of negative number in the Gross Domestic Product in the fourth quarter. Business investment rose at a 6.5% rate, much faster than the 2.9% pace estimated last month. In the preceding three months, it had slid by about 5.9%. With an anticipated increase of 5.7% for the fourth quarter, the construction numbers were a bit of a disappointment when they came in at 5%. Posting an increase of just under 19% in the third quarter, there was quite a disparity between quarters. Contributing a .3% increase in GDP, imports and exports were significantly stronger in the fourth quarter than previously anticipated. In the Boise real estate industry, the GDP and other market factors are closely watched.
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